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WSWS : News & Analysis : Asia : Indonesia

Suharto’s political machine backs Megawati in Indonesian poll

By John Roberts
26 August 2004

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With the second round of the Indonesian presidential elections just a month away, the incumbent Megawati Sukarnoputri last week signed a formal coalition agreement with Golkar, the United Development Party (PPP) and several smaller parties.

On paper at least, the deal should have clinched the presidency for Megawati against rival Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in the September 20 run-off. In the first round, Yudhoyono won 33.6 percent of the vote as against 26.6 percent for Megawati. But if she could count on the 22.2 percent of people who voted for Golkar’s candidate, Wiranto, and another 3.0 percent for the PPP’s Hamzah Haz, she would have more than the 50 percent required to win.

The problem for Megawati is that these calculations are unlikely to have much value. The support for all the parties is unstable. The very fact that Yudhoyono is the frontrunner is a sharp sign of the volatility of the electorate and the hostility of voters to the establishment parties. The retired general was Megawati’s senior security minister until March when he resigned, formed his own Democratic Party and announced his intention to stand for the presidency.

In fact, Megawati’s deal with Golkar, the political instrument of the ousted Suharto dictatorship, could easily cost her votes. Her image as a “reformer” has already been all but destroyed by her close collaboration with the armed forces (TNI), firstly during the protracted impeachment of the previous president Abdurrahman Wahid in 2001, and then by her support for the military’s repression in Aceh and Papua.

Megawati’s economic policies have also made her highly unpopular. She has attempted to carry out the restructuring demands of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, which have given her limited praise for stabilising the currency and reducing the state budget. These measures, however, have not resulted in any significant economic growth and have fallen hardest on the poorest sections of society.

By relying on the support of Golkar, Megawati has further alienated voters who are looking for an alternative to the political establishment. To secure its support, she had to guarantee Golkar eight cabinet posts and reportedly paid the party around $US20 million. She signed the deal with Golkar, PPP and the small Christian-based Prosperous Peace Party at a lavish ceremony last Thursday.

Seeking to turn the situation to his advantage, Yudhoyono declared that popular support was more important than endorsement by the ruling elites. He ruled out offering money and cabinet seats for political support, saying: “This is a direct election. I will work in my own way. It is just as important to get the support from the people and to listen to what the people say.”

In contrast with Megawati, Yudhoyono, or “SYB” as he is known, has attempted to cultivate a populist image as an “independent” and a man of the people. He is, however, is just as much part of the ruling establishment. He has garnered significant backing from sections of the corporate elite, in Indonesia and internationally, who are frustrated with Megawati’s failure to press ahead with market reforms and reverse the country’s economic decline.

Investors and economic commentators complain that Megawati has not done enough to attract foreign investment and failed to address systematic corruption, a weak legal system and restrictive regulations. Investment approvals fell 34 percent in the first six months of the year, and investment as a percentage of GDP is the lowest since the early 1970s.

Reflecting the sentiment in business circles, Australian Financial Review commented on August 6: “Many businesspeople believe, despite some success in stabilising the economy since taking over in 2001, that she has no clear vision or fresh ideas to spur growth and investment over the next five years. They believe that a victory by Mr Yudhoyono, who has failed to enunciate many clear policies, would improve business confidence, even before any economic reforms were enacted.

Peter Fanning, chairman of the International Business Council in Jakarta, told the newspaper: “A change of government to SBY will immediately generate a more positive attitude.” Chairman of the Indonesian Employers Association, Sofjan Wanandi, noted that many businessmen, including American and Japanese, prefer Yudhoyono. “We can talk to SBY, and he has already promised to meet us every three months. The current government is not listening at the moment,” he said.

As far as the ruling circles are concerned, Yudhoyono has two essential qualities. As a general under Suharto he has demonstrated his ruthlessness in crushing popular opposition. He was chief of staff in Jakarta during the 1996 attack on the headquarters of Megawati’s party and served as the head of the TNI’s territorial command during the military-backed violence in East Timor in 1999.

Secondly, while he remains closely connected to the military apparatus, Yudhoyono, unlike retired general Wiranto, has distanced himself from the Suharto family and associated business cronies. From the standpoint of big business, he therefore offers a better hope of dismantling the system of monopolies and restrictive economic practices that flourished under Suharto.

Formal campaigning for the second round is restricted to the week prior to the poll. Both candidates are, however, promoting themselves through public and media appearances. One of the few indications of their respective standings was provided by a poll conducted early last month by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems. It found that Yudhoyono had a massive lead of 66 percent over Megawati, who was preferred by just 24 percent.

No doubt, Golkar’s backing will provide Megawati with some assistance. During the three decades of the Suharto dictatorship, the party established a political machine that reaches down to the village level in all of Indonesia’s 32 provinces. But Golkar cannot ensure its supporters vote for Megawati and the party itself is divided over its pact with Megawati.

Golkar chairman Akbar Tandjung pushed for the party to back Megawati. But other layers lean toward Yudhoyono. On July 31, Yudhoyono’s vice-presidential running mate Jusuf Kalla, who is a Golkar member, held a meeting with 23 of the 32 Golkar provincial leaders to seek their support. Wiranto has also hinted that he may support Yudhoyono. At a party meeting on August 10, Wiranto declined to rule out rumours that he would challenge Tandjung for the Golkar leadership.

Reporting the Golkar leadership decision to support Megawati, the Jakarta Post noted that it would make little difference “as nearly 86 percent of Golkar supporters in a recent poll said they would vote for Sisilo compared to only 9 percent for Megawati”. At a meeting in Surabaya last weekend, Tandjung had to lay down the law to party officials in East Java to force them to accept the decision to back Megawati.

Whatever the outcome of the September 20 election, the next administration will implement the demands of the ruling elite for economic policies that will place further burdens on working people. Whether Megawati or Yudhoyono is in charge, the security forces will be used to suppress any opposition. If the military is again able to rear its head just six years after the fall of Suharto, the main political responsibility rests with Megawati and other “reformers” who stifled the mass movement for genuine democratic rights.