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Analysis : Middle
East : Iraq
US makes tactical retreat before Iraqi uprising
By James Conachy
1 June 2004
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Nearly a month after the US military pulled back from its assault
on the city of Fallujah, an uneasy ceasefire was negotiated on
May 27 with the Mahdi Army militia of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr
in the city of Najaf. While the US-led Coalition Provisional Authority
(CPA) is seeking to put the best possible light on the deal, Iraqis
are widely interpreting it as a tactical retreat by the US in
the face of the uprising in the Shiite south that has raged since
early April, and a victory for Sadr.
The truce in Najaf was worked out between Sadr, representatives
of the main Shiite clerical hierarchy and Shiite members of the
US-installed Iraqi Governing Council (IGC)including former
US favourite Ahmad Chalabi. Its terms include a US agreement not
to deploy American troops in the city, the site of the revered
Shiite shrine of Imam Ali.
In exchange, Sadr has agreed that those of his militiamen who
are not from Najaf will leave. The remainder will put away their
weapons and allow Iraqi police to take over security and enforce
law and order in the city. According to reports from Karbala,
an identical arrangement is now in place around the two Shiite
shrines there, following an end to fighting on May 22. US forces
have not entered Karbala for nearly a week.
If the ceasefires hold, the US has effectively accepted that
Najaf and Karbala, like Fallujah, will not be under the control
of the US occupation authority in Baghdad. Most of the Iraqi police
who will be patrolling the cities were openly sympathetic to Sadrs
uprising or took part in it. The Mahdi Army militiamen in the
cities have left the streets, but they have kept their weapons
and remain on call.
Sadr has not been killed or captured, which was the stated
US objective in April. According to the CPA, US demands that he
disband his militia and face trial over accusations that he was
responsible for the murder of a pro-occupation Shiite cleric last
year will be negotiated with Shiite religious leaders. Sadr has
denied the accusation and declared he will not submit. He told
Al Jazeera on Friday: I will not obey the occupation.
Never.
Sadrs militia retains a strong presence in Najaf, as
a skirmish on Sunday demonstrated. The clash took place in the
sprawling Shiite cemetery on the outskirts of the city, after
a US patrol attempted to enter the area. CPA spokesman General
Mark Kimmitt claimed that those responsible were militiamen who
had not heard of the ceasefire or Iraqi fighters not under Sadrs
control. Sadrs representative, however, reported that an
American force had violated the truce by approaching Najaf
and members of the Mahdi Army confronted it with rocket-propelled
grenades and gunfire, forcing it to retreat.
A Najaf local, quoted in Sundays Washington Post,
declared: I dont know what truce they are talking
about. The Mahdi Army is still in the streets carrying guns and
the US forces are still shooting.
Since the ceasefire was struck in Najaf, clashes have also
taken place every day in the nearby town of Kufa. Sadr has used
the main Kufa mosque to deliver regular sermons and speeches calling
on Iraqis from all religious and ethnic groups to unite together
to fight against the US occupation. He has also issued appeals
to the American people to support the Iraqi struggle. On Sunday
night, a major battle was fought when 100 US troops in tanks and
armoured vehicles converged on the town centre. After an hour
of fighting, the US forces withdrew to their base. Two American
soldiers were killed.
The last eight weeks have boosted the standing and authority
of Sadr among the Iraqi masses. A recent poll carried out by the
Iraq Centre for Research and Strategic Studies found he registered
68 percent support, up from just a few percent before April.
Major General Martin Dempsey, the commander of the US First
Armored Division, spelt out the reasons for the US acceptance
of a ceasefire in Najafthe fear that any US assault on the
site of the holiest Shiite shrine would cause more fighters to
join Sadr. Dempsey stated: It was pretty clear he [Sadr]
was trying to take what was a fairly small uprising and trying
to expand it to a popular uprising. The principal goal in return
was to not allow this thing to become a popular uprising, because
if he gained broad support in the Shiite population, there truly
would have been nothing we could we have done.
It may, however, be too late for deals and manoeuvres by the
occupation forces to prevent Sadrs movement emerging as
the central political voice of Iraqs majority Shiite population.
A supporter of Sadr, Sheik Ahmed Shibani, told the Los Angeles
Times: Iraqis now feel there is only one enemy against
themthe Americans. It has caused the rise of one Shiite
leadership.
Sadrs rivals in the Shiite establishment have discredited
themselves by cooperating with the CPA and by their refusal to
support the uprising. Repeated calls for an end to armed resistance
by leading Shiite cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and the Shiite
parties with IGC representatives have had next to no impact.
On Friday, an attempt was made to assassinate a Najaf representative
of the pro-occupation Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution
in Iraq (SCIRI). SCIRI blamed Sadr and called a demonstration
in Najaf to denounce him. Less than 100 people attended.
The Bush administration and American military drastically underestimated
the depth of resentment and hostility among Iraqi Shiites toward
the occupation when they launched a crackdown on al-Sadrs
movement in late March. On March 28, the Baghdad office of Sadrs
newspaper Al Hawza was raided by American troops and the
paper declared illegal. On April 3, after days of growing demonstrations
against the censorship, Sadrs leading supporter in Baghdad
was detained and accused of involvement in the killing of a Shiite
cleric in April 2003. On April 4, a demonstration in Najaf against
the arrest was fired on by coalition troops, killing 21 Iraqi
protestors and wounding over 200, and an arrest warrant issued
against Sadr himself.
Washington believed that it could intimidate the Shiite establishment
into withdrawing their opposition to the transfer of sovereignty
to an un-elected government on June 30 by provoking a confrontation
with the Mahdi Army and drowning it in blood.
Instead, the attack on Sadrs organisation triggered an
insurrection. Shiite militiamen and youth took up arms in the
working class suburb of Sadr City in Baghdad, in Najaf and Karbala,
Kut, Nasiriyah, and the British-controlled cities of Amara and
Basra. They seized government buildings, took over city streets,
and forced US and allied forces to retreat into fortified compounds.
It is unknown how many casualties the Shiite fighters have
suffered during the fighting. It is possible that as many as 1,000
died and several thousand were injured in completely unequal clashes
with American and British tanks and helicopter gunships. There
are no indications, however, that the armed resistance is coming
to an end.
As well as continuing to hold Najaf, the Mahdi Army is still
in de-facto control of Sadr City in Baghdadnamed after Sadrs
uncle and father. US forces only enter the area in armoured convoys.
A further 370 British troops with additional armoured vehicles
are being rushed to Iraq to reinforce the occupation forces in
the British zone, where fighting is escalating in the marsh area
between Basra and Amara. According to the Telegraph, British
troops are stunned by the level of violence they are
now facing. They are reportedly coming under daily attack.
While the Bush administration and UN try to portray an un-elected
and unrepresentative puppet regime as a legitimate sovereign
Iraqi government, the sympathies of millions of Iraqis lie with
those fighting to drive the occupation forces out of the country.
The ceasefires are unlikely to last very long.
See Also:
UN Security Council stalls vote
on US Iraq resolution
[28 May 2004]
Bush's prime-time speech highlights
deepening crisis over Iraq
[27 May 2004]
US occupation regime staggered
by bomb blasts, uprisings
[19 May 2004]
Marines pull back from Fallujah:
a debacle for American imperialism
[4 May 2004]
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