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Analysis : Middle
East : Iraq
Behind the installation of Jawad al-Maliki as Iraqi prime
minister
By James Cogan
26 April 2006
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Jawad al-Maliki, a leader of the Shiite fundamentalist Daawa
Party, was elected on Saturday to be the next prime minister of
Iraq. Under the terms of the Iraqi constitution, he has 30 days
in which to form a cabinet and have it approved by the parliament.
Malikis emergence is the outcome of months of US manoeuvres
to force the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA)the coalition of
seven Shiite fundamentalist movements which holds the largest
number of seats in the parliamentto select a candidate and
put forward policies acceptable to the Bush administration.
In February, the UIA nominated Daawa leader Ibrahim al-Jaafari.
Other parties in the parliament, which control just over half
the seats and could block the choice of prime minister, insisted
that someone else was put forward. The political impasse was only
broken last Thursday when Jaafari finally capitulated and stood
aside.
In his first statement, Maliki announced that he will seek
to form the national unity government that has been
demanded by the Bush administration over the past three months.
He also declared that he would take steps to disband the militias
that have been established as the country slides toward a civil
war between Sunni and Shiite extremists.
His installation as prime minister was unopposed in the parliament
and welcomed by US officials, including the US ambassador in Iraq
Zalmay Khalilzad. Sunni Arab and Kurdish legislators have stated
that they believe they can work with Maliki, while media reports
have described him as decisive, forceful,
outspoken and an experienced political operator.
Malikis history is typical of the Shiite fundamentalists
who have collaborated with the US occupation of Iraq over the
past three years. Much of his life was spent in exile. In 1980,
he fled Iraq to escape a brutal crackdown on Daawa by the
regime of Saddam Hussein. Initially he took refuge in Iran, where
the Shiite fundamentalist regime of Ayatollah Khomeni had come
to power the year before. He left for Syria, however, shortly
after the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war in 1981. Daawa split
over its attitude to the conflict. A sizeable faction of the Iraqi
Shiite exiles actively backed Iran and formed the Supreme Council
for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). Maliki supported leaders
such as Jaafari, who opposed subordinating the Iraqi movement
to Tehran.
Maliki operated from Damascus until he secretly reentered Iraq
in late 2002. While he was in Syria, Maliki was the head of Daawas
military wing, which is believed to have carried out a series
of assassinations and terrorist attacks against Iraqi targets
during the 1980s and 1990s. Ideologically, he is a religious extremist
and an advocate of Islamic law. A female Shiite legislator told
the New York Times that she had the impression that he
opposed women being involved in political affairs.
By the time of the 2003 US invasion, Maliki had established
himself as one of Daawas key leaders. Over the past
three years, he has been Jaafaris main political advisor
and was the spokesman for the Shiite-dominated transitional
government that was formed in 2005. He has also worked in two
of the key committees established by the US occupation. In 2003,
he sat on the de-Baathification committee which purged thousands
of former members of Saddam Husseins regime from their jobs.
Last year, he was one of the leading Shiite representatives on
the committee that worked closely with Khalilzad to formulate
a new Iraqi constitution.
A factor in the US endorsement for Maliki is undoubtedly his
role on the constitutional committee. He is a man they know will
adapt himself to American demands. The US-vetted document, much
of which was probably drafted by the US embassy, established the
means for the plunder of Iraqs oil reserves by allowing
provinces of Iraq to form regions that have authority
over all new oil and gas fields. In the north of the country,
the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) is already signing contracts
with foreign energy companies. In the predominantly Shiite-populated
south, elements of the Shiite establishment are calling for the
formation of a region that would have sway over more than half
the country and as much as 60 percent of its oil and gas.
The constitution is a direct consequences of Washingtons
policy of divide-and-rule. A narrow layer among the Kurdish and
Shiite elite have been promised an opportunity to enrich themselves
by the de-facto partitioning of the country, in exchange for supporting
the US in crushing the largely Sunni Arab insurgency being fought
against the occupation forces. A Kurdish regional government in
the north and a Shiite regional government in the south would
provide a relatively stable framework for the exploitation of
Iraqs huge untapped oil reserves by US corporations.
The constitution was predictably bitterly opposed by Sunni
Arab parties and clerics. The appropriation of oil revenues by
regional governments in the north and south will leave the largely
Sunni provinces of central and western Iraq marginalised. The
alienation of the Sunni population is one of the primary factors
in both the ongoing guerilla war against the US occupation forces
and the sectarian violence between rival Sunni and Shiite armed
groups.
At the same time, however, layers of the Sunni establishment
are being encouraged to cut their losses and embrace US domination
of the country in exchange for the return of certain power and
privileges. A key aspect of the US call for a national unity
government is the inclusion of leading Sunni figures in the cabinet
and an end to de-Baathification policies. The hope in Washington
is that it will split the Sunni-based insurgency and reduce the
scale of the fighting against the occupation forces.
The campaign against Ibrahim al-Jaafari has primarily been
aimed at forcing the Shiite alliance into compliance with this
agenda. Along with Jaafari, it has been directed against the movement
led by cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, which exerts considerable influence
within the UIA and was the key supporter of the Daawa leader.
The Sadrists are essentially the faction of Daawa that
remained in the country after 1980. Their main social base is
the Shiite working class and urban poor in Baghdad who are hostile
to both the former Baath regime and the US occupation that has
replaced it. Since 2003, the Sadrist movement has effectively
ruled the huge impoverished Baghdad suburb of Sadr City through
an extensive political network and their militia, the Mahdi Army.
In 2004, the Mahdi Army took up arms against the occupation
forces following an attempt to crackdown on their activities.
Under the terms of a ceasefire, the Sadrists agreed to stop fighting
in exchange for the ability to operate politically. In order to
retain support among the masses, however, their leaders continue
to make demagogic demands for the withdrawal of occupation troops.
They have also refused to disband their militia on the grounds
it is needed to protect Shiite civilians from Sunni extremists
and voice opposition to any reversal of de-Baathification.
In the December 2005 election, a large turnout by Sadr supporters
helped the UIA win 128 out of the 275 seats in the parliament.
At least 30 Sadrists were among those elected on the Shiite slate.
Their votes were crucial in getting Jaafari re-elected as the
prime ministerial candidate, against a candidate from SCIRI.
Reflecting Daawas dependency on the Sadrists, Jaafari
ignored the demands that Shiite militias be disbanded and distanced
himself from clauses of the constitution that establish a mechanism
for the oil-rich northern city of Kirkuk to be incorporated into
the Kurdish region. As Baghdad is their main power base, Sadrist
leaders oppose the granting of greater powers to the regions.
Jaafari also dismissed evidence that elements of the Iraqi
army and police were functioning as death squads, murdering hundreds
of Sunni opponents of the Shiite-dominated government. Following
the destruction of a key Shiite mosque in February, members of
the Mahdi Army are accused of carrying out a rampage of reprisal
sectarian killings in Sunni areas. Government security forces
reportedly did little to prevent the violence.
The sympathy of the Shiite fundamentalists with the Iranian
regime has been another factor in the Bush administrations
hostility to Jaafaris reappointment. In January, Sadr threatened
that his militia would take up arms against the US military again
in the event of an American attack on Iran.
For close to three months, Jaafari insisted that he would not
step down as the UIAs candidate for prime minister. Throughout
this time his key supporters were Daawa leaders such as
Maliki and the Sadrists, in the face of growing calls inside the
UIA for Jaafari to agree to go. The back down last week suggests
that the unity of the Shiite parties was on the verge of collapsing
under the impact of US pressure and threats. The prospect existed
of a damaging split, with a UIA faction attempting to form a governing
coalition with the Kurdish and Sunni parties.
Rather than risk losing control of the government altogether,
Daawa and the Sadrists have made the venal calculation to
accommodate to the US dictates. Maliki is the figure that the
Shiite establishment has entrusted with the task. Nevertheless,
while his government appears likely to make substantial concessions
to both Kurdish and Sunni demands to appease Washington, Malikis
appointment sets the stage for a new and even bloodier stage of
the US occupation of Iraq.
Maliki has proposed the incorporation of Shiite militias, including
the Mahdi Army, into the Iraqi military, where they would be used
against the largely Sunni-led insurgency and to terrorise the
Sunni population into accepting Iraqs reduction to a US
puppet state. The plan has already been denounced by leading Sunni
clerics who accuse the militias of killing thousands of
Iraqis. The communal tensions that have been fomented by
the US invasion and occupation can only intensify, plunging the
country deeper toward a sectarian civil war.
See Also:
Shiite leader bows to US demands as Iraq
slides further into civil war
[21 April 2006]
Daniel Pipes and the unfolding civil
war in Iraq
[11 April 2006]
Iraq's "National Security
Council": a move toward open dictatorship
[24 March 2006]
Bush administration drags
Iraq towards the abyss of civil war
[1 March 2006]
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