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Analysis : Middle
East : Iraq
Amid mounting sectarian violence, political stalemate continues
in Iraq
By Peter Symonds
18 March 2006
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Three months after the Iraqi national elections, no new government
has been formed in Baghdad. The deadlock between two communally-based
blocs of parties is just one more symptom of the political and
social catastrophe that the Bush administration has created in
the three years since its criminal invasion of Iraq.
The Iraqi National Assembly met for the first time on Thursday
for a formal swearing in, amid escalating sectarian violence,
a deepening social crisis and a major US air and ground assault
near the city of Samarra. As part of elaborate security measures
surrounding the meeting, US and Iraqi security forces clamped
a no-drive curfew throughout the city beginning Wednesday evening.
The session, which was held inside the heavily-fortified Green
Zone in Central Baghdad, lasted barely 30 minutes and made no
decisions other than to assign the post of assembly speaker, temporarily,
to the veteran Sunni politician Adnan Pachachi.
Pachachi summed up the prevailing mood of pessimism. The
country is going through dangerous times, it faces challenges,
and the perils come from every direction. Sectarian tensions have
increased. We have to prove to the world that there will not be
civil war between the people of the country. The danger is still
there, and our enemies are watching us, he declared, before
being cut off by a rival Shiite leader.
Since the bombing of the Al-Askariya mosque in Samarra on February
22, hundreds, if not thousands, of people have been slaughtered
by Shiite and Sunni militia in a wave of attacks and reprisals.
As well as indiscriminate bombings, many of the victims have been
tortured and killed execution-style.
Baghdad authorities announced on Tuesday that the bodies of
86 men had been found in the previous two days in different parts
of the city. Most had been shot or strangled. Last Sunday, an
apparently coordinated assault on the working class Shiite suburb
of Sadr City, involving rockets, bombs and mortars, killed 52
people and injured nearly 300.
In a bid to stamp its authority on the deteriorating situation,
the US military launched a major offensive on Thursday near Samarra.
Described by US officials as the largest air assault since the
2003 invasion, the operation, coded-named Swarmer,
involved 1,500 US and Iraqi troops and hundreds of armoured vehicles,
as well as attack helicopters and air transport.
None of the Iraqi politicians, who gathered behind protective
barricades in the Green Zone, can address the disaster facing
the Iraqi people. All of the parties, except two Sunni-based formations,
supported the US invasion and have participated in the puppet
regimes that have sanctioned the US occupation and its ongoing
campaign of military repression.
US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad bluntly spelled out the political
prerequisite for participation in the next Baghdad government
when he chided Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr for his rather empty
public appeals for US withdrawal. In a message to
al-Sadr in the al-Hayat newspaper, Khalilzad bluntly declared:
You cannot be a part of the government, while at the same
time you issue statements demanding that we leave.
Al-Sadr, whose movement clashed with the US military in 2004,
has now thrown his political weight behind the Shiite-based United
Iraqi Alliance (UIA) and the current prime minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari.
Jaafari, who is also the UIAs nominee as the next prime
minister, is opposed by an alliance involving the two Sunni parties,
the Kurdish Alliance (KA) and the National Iraqi List of long-time
CIA asset Iyad Allawi.
All of these leaderships are under intense pressure from their
social base to improve the appalling living conditions facing
the majority of the population. The universal character of this
popular hostility was highlighted by a violent protest this week
in Halabja in the Kurdish north, previously regarded as the most
stable region of the country.
Hundreds of Halabja residents, protesting over poor housing
and the lack of water and electricity, set fire to a memorial
erected to the 1988 poison gas attack on the town by the Iraqi
army that left more than 5,000 dead. [Kurdish] officials
visit Halabja just for the publicity. Halabja looks the same as
the day it was attacked, a shopkeeper told the press. Kurdish
security forces opened fire on the protest, killing at least one
man and wounding eight others.
Having no solution to this social crisis, the KA, like its
Shiite and Sunni counterparts, shamelessly resorts to stirring
up communal tensions to shore up its base of support and to advance
the narrow interests of the Kurdish ruling cliques. One of the
main KA demands is for the northern city of Kirkuk and its adjacent
oil-rich districts to be included in an autonomous Kurdish regiona
demand that Jaafari, backed by the Sadrist movement, has adamantly
opposed.
It is impossible, however, to explain the current standoff
over the next government simply from the competing communal and
sectarian interests of the venal ruling cliques in Iraq. The incongruous
character of these alliances is perhaps best illustrated by the
coalition between two Sunni partiesthe Iraqi Consensus Front
and the Iraqi Front for National Dialoguethat have connections
to the anti-occupation insurgency, and Iyad Allawi, who as prime
minister gave the green light for US militarys levelling
of the Sunni town of Fallujah in 2004.
Above all, the decisions about the next Iraqi government will
be made in Washington, not Baghdad. Having relied on Jaafari and
the UIA to help wage a dirty war of attrition against the predominantly-Sunni
armed resistance, the Bush administration has switched tack. As
it provokes a new confrontation with neighbouring Iran, Washington
is concerned about the loyalties of the Shiite parties, all of
which, to a lesser or greater degree, have ties with Tehran.
The current deadlock between the UIA and its rivals is the
product of US efforts to cut the Shiite parties down to size and
to include approved Sunni parties in the next Iraqi governmenta
tactic that is also aimed at politically dividing the anti-occupation
resistance. All of this cynical manoeuvring, which is being overseen
by US ambassador Khalilzad, is carried out under the fraudulent
banner of forming a national unity government. Khalilzad,
who is one of the Bush administrations chief political fixers,
played the same role in Afghanistan where he secured the installation
of US puppet Hamid Karzai as president.
Khalilzads behind-the-scenes efforts to bully, bribe
and cajole the Iraqi parties to accept Washingtons plan
intensified last week. Having broken the Kurdish parties away
from their previous alliance with the UIA, he has engineered a
situation where neither bloc has the necessary two-thirds of assembly
seats to elect the president and two vice-presidents, who in turn
select the prime minister.
After a series of make or break meetings of political
leaders that began last Sunday, Khalilzad told the New York
Times that he felt the logjam had been broken
because people realised that if one side has red lines,
all sides will have red lines. His main success
appears to have been to get al-Sadrs supporters to drop
their opposition to the inclusion of Allawi, who sanctioned the
bloody US attacks on the Sadrist militia in Najaf in 2004.
In the present highly-charged sectarian climate, however, the
UIA is still unwilling to make major concessions. As a result,
Khalilzad, with the approval of the White House, has taken the
extraordinary step of seeking talks with top Iranian officialseven
as Washington is menacing Iran with sanctions and military strikes.
For its part, Tehran has quickly modified its anti-US bluster
and declared its willingness to discuss how to assist Washington
in maintaining its occupation of Iraq.
Any national unity government formed under these
circumstances will inevitably be a highly unstable formation,
which, far from ending sectarian conflict, will only inflame the
tensions that are plunging the country towards civil war. All
of this makes a mockery of the absurd claims of the Bush administration
to be moving towards democracy in Iraq. Washingtons
chief objective remains the same as three years ago: to subjugate
Iraq and its people in order to loot its oil and to transform
the country into a base of operations for its broader strategic
and economic ambitions throughout the region.
See Also:
Iraq: violence continues and sectarian
divide widens
[3 March 2006]
Bush administration drags Iraq towards
the abyss of civil war
[1 March 2006]
Sectarian violence engulfs
Iraq following mosque bombing
[24 February 2006]
After the Iraq election:
Washington steps in to shape the next government
[21 December 2005]
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