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Analysis : Middle
East : Iraq
Iraqs National Security Council: a move
toward open dictatorship
By James Cogan
24 March 2006
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The announcement on March 19 that steps are being taken to
form an extra-parliamentary National Security Council
(NSC) is a warning that the Bush administration is moving toward
an openly dictatorial regime in Iraq.
The White Houses attempts to portray Iraq as a country
in a transition to democracy are becoming increasingly
threadbare. More than three months after the December 2005 elections,
there is no new government and no indications that one will be
formed anytime soon. No party or alliance holds a majority of
seats, let alone the two-thirds majority constitutionally required
to elect the presidential council that names the prime minister.
The longer the intractable stalemate continues, the more the
struggle for dominance in post-invasion Iraq is being fought out
on the streets. A low-level civil war is raging between rival
Sunni and Shiite militias in Baghdad and the surrounding regions.
Since the destruction of the Shiite al-Askariya mosque in Samarra
on February 22, bombings, mortar strikes, ethnic cleansing and
targeted death squad killings have claimed hundreds of lives on
both sides of the sectarian divide. At the same time, attacks
on American troops by predominantly Sunni guerillas are continuing
unabated.
The NSC is the Bush administrations solution. The brainchild
of Zalmay Khalilzad, the US ambassador in Iraq, and Massoud Barzani,
the Kurdish nationalist leader who heads the autonomous Kurdish
Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq, the intention is that
the 19-member council will take control over the Iraqi state,
regardless of what happens in the bitterly divided parliament.
The NSC is particularly intended to undermine the position
of the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), which holds 130 of
the parliaments 275 seats and dominates the transitional
government that was formed in May 2005. The UIA is comprised of
the Daawa movement of the current prime minister Ibrahim
al-Jaafari; the Iranian-linked Supreme Council for the Islamic
Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI); and the fundamentalist movement headed
by cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. It has insisted on retaining the posts
of prime minister and interior minister, as well as the main portfolios
responsible for providing social services.
The UIAs demands have been rejected by the Kurdish nationalist
alliance, Sunni Arab-based parties and the coalition led by Iyad
Allawithe émigré collaborator with the US
invasion who the Bush administration installed as the countrys
interim prime minister in 2004. Combined, the Kurd,
Sunni and secular blocs have 133 seats, more than enough to block
any attempt by the Shiite alliance to form a government.
The Kurdish nationalists are hostile to Jaafari and the Sadr
faction, which opposes the Kurds perspective of incorporating
the oil-rich city of Kirkuk into the KRG. Sunni parties and Allawi
accuse SCIRI of using its control over the interior ministry to
infiltrate its supporters into the security forces and wage a
reign of terror against Sunni supporters of the former Baathist
regime and the Sunni population in general. The Kurds are insisting
that the UIA nominate someone beside Jaafari, while Sunni leaders
are demanding the UIA hand over the security ministries to so-called
non-sectarians, a phrase considered by Shiites to
be little more than a euphemism for former generals in Saddam
Husseins Sunni-dominated armed forces.
Behind the opposition to the UIA is the Bush administration.
Under conditions of rising tension between Washington and Tehran,
the White House considers the Shiite parties too close to the
Iranian regime to control the Iraqi security forces. The Pentagon
also calculates that incorporating elements of the ex-Baathist
establishment into the Iraqi government will convince elements
of the resistance to end their guerilla war against the occupation.
The announcement of the NSC is clearly a compromise by the
UIA after weeks of unrelenting US pressure that they agree to
form a national unity government with the other factions.
According to unnamed American officials, the council will function
as a parallel authority to the caretaker government
headed by Jaafari, while negotiations continue in the parliament.
It will formulate policy for the army and police, the budget and
the distribution of oil revenues. It will reportedly develop strategies
to disarm the Shiite militias and end the anti-occupation resistance
that is raging in the largely Sunni Arab provinces of western
and central Iraq.
Despite there being no basis in the Iraqi constitution for
any body apart from the government exercising such sweeping powers,
NSC decisions will only be referred to the parliament if they
require legislation.
The security council will consist of nine members of the Shiite
alliance, four from the Kurdish parties, four from Sunni parties
and two secular politicians. The only concession to
the UIA is that a two-thirds vote will be required to make any
decision, giving a veto to the Shiite parties. The concentration
of power in the hands of such a small group, however, will make
it much easier for Khalilzad and other American officials to manipulate.
While the US is calling for ongoing operations against the
Sunni resistance, there are hints that it is considering another
bloody crackdown against the more extreme Shiite militias, such
as elements of the Sadrist movement. General Rick Lynch threatened
last month that the US military would not allow the
Sadrists to take control of any area of Iraq. By all reports,
Sadrs Mahdi Army openly controls most of the Shiite suburbs
of Baghdad.
The composition of the NSC underscores that its purpose is
to reduce the power of the Shiite fundamentalist alliance and
deliver it to more trusted collaborators of the US. The 19 members
will reportedly include the president, vice presidents, prime
minister and deputy prime ministers. As the new parliament has
not elected any of these positions, they will be filled by the
individuals who hold them in the caretaker transitional
government.
Thus, Ahmad Chalabi, the longtime CIA asset whose party did
not win a single seat in the recent elections, will sit on the
council, as he is one of the three deputy prime ministers in the
transitional administration. The other deputy prime ministers
are Abed Mutlak al-Jiburi, a former general under Saddam Hussein,
and Rowsch Shaways, a Kurdish nationalist. The pro-American Kurdish
leader Jalal Talabani is currently president. While a SCIRI official
is one vice president, the other is the Sunni leader Ghazi al-Yawar
who has worked with the US forces since the invasion.
Barzani will have a place as KRG president, while pro-US Sunni
Adnan Pachachi, another émigré with little popular
support, will sit on the council because he was named last week
as the caretaker speaker of parliament.
Most significantly, Iyad Allawi will represent the secular
bloc, which won only 25 seats in December. In 2004, Allawi, as
interim prime minister, gave the green light for the brutal US
operations against the short-lived Sadrist uprising in the Shiite
cities of Karbala and Najaf and the assault on the Sunni city
of Fallujah. Earlier, in June 2004, he was accused of personally
executing six alleged Sunni insurgents in a Baghdad prison. While
he is despised among ordinary Iraqis, he has relations with the
ruling elite and military office caste that held sway under Hussein
and is considered reliable in Washington due to his role in the
first year of the occupation.
For this reason, he is being groomed by the White House to
play the role of Iraqs new strongman. Press reportage has
consistently referred to Allawi as the most likely head of the
NSC. An unnamed senior political source told Reuters:
The job was created for him. We have been discussing it
for at least two months.
At a press conference on March 21, Bush declared he was encouraged
by the progress toward a council that gives each of the
countrys main political factions a voice in making security
and economic policies. He hailed the formation of the NSC
as an indicator that Iraqs leaders understand the
importance of a government of national unity.
In reality, the discussion in Washington, and among the Iraqi
leaders closest to the White House, is that the security council
provides a means to bypass the political impasse in the parliament
altogether. In interview with Reuters on March 21, Allawi sought
to use the danger of civil war to justify the NSCand himselfassuming
dictatorial executive powers immediately.
Unfortunately, the talks [in parliament] are still about
the concept of a national unity government. We are saying, lets
form a government [the security council] until things are more
stable, he declared. Then we could change the government.
But the tragedy of killing and terrorism must not go on.
The main task of the NSC, he said, was to take control of the
security apparatus and strengthen the army, police, security
and intelligence services.
Hinting at the discussion in occupation circles that the NSC
may become a permanent fixture, Reuters reported: Technically,
the council would be a temporary body designed to help pull Iraq
out of crisis, sources said, but it might be needed for a long
time. In other words, an unconstitutional and unelected
cabal, worked out behind closed doors with American officials,
is preparing to take open-ended control of the armed forces, the
budget and the oil industry. This is Iraqi democracy
three years after the US invasion.
See Also:
Amid mounting sectarian violence, political
stalemate continues in Iraq
[18 March 2006]
Iraq: violence continues and sectarian
divide widens
[3 March 2006]
Bush administration drags Iraq towards
the abyss of civil war
[1 March 2006]
Sectarian violence engulfs
Iraq following mosque bombing
[24 February 2006]
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