French President Emmanuel Macron last week called New Caledonia’s politicians back to negotiations in Paris on 16 January over the stalled Bougival accord. A de facto referendum on the document, scheduled to take place in the French Pacific colony on 15 March, is now assumed to be cancelled.

Macron said the intent of the summit is to “pursue dialogue with every partner” in the form of a “progress report” aiming at “opening new political prospects” and to allow the French government to continue the discussions.

The recall came after New Caledonia’s main pro-independence coalition, the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) announced a delegation would go to Paris to meet with French parliamentary groups over their rejection of the previously agreed Bougival process.

Under the agreement, signed in July, the colony’s pro- and anti-independence parties committed to a so-called “historic” deal regarding the future status of the Pacific territory. It envisaged the creation of a “state of New Caledonia” within the French Constitution, a New Caledonian “nationality” and the transfer of limited French powers to the territorial administration.

The deal resulted from negotiations called by Macron in the wake of last year’s seven-month uprising by indigenous Kanak youth against French colonial rule. Widespread rioting saw 14 people killed, mostly by French gendarmes, and damage estimated at €2.2 billion. Fuelled by social inequality, unemployment and economic desperation, the rebellion brought alienated youth into conflict, not only with colonial oppression, but with the territory’s political establishment, including the official Kanak pro-independence parties.

France’s ruling elite is determined not to relinquish its 172-year grip on its strategically important colonial possession. Under Bougival, the uprising’s demands for full and sovereign political independence were dismissed. France retains control of policing, the courts, currency and defence, but with new structures enlisting a wider layer of the indigenous political elite to insulate the established system from further social revolt.

At a special conference in August, the FLNKS formally rejected the draft text, saying their negotiators’ signatures on it were void because the “lure of independence” failed to meet demands for full sovereignty. Reaffirming their rejection of Bougival last week, FLNKS leaders described the process as a “political dead end” and called on the French state to “get back on the right track.”

The October political crisis and change of government in Paris stalled further negotiations. The new far-right Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu replaced Manuel Valls as overseas minister with Naïma Moutchou. Moutchou travelled to Nouméa in November, saying she did not want to “do without” the FLNKS, provided FLNKS did not want to “do without the other (parties).” Supporters of Bougival urged the FLNKS to re-join the talks, claiming the document could be “modified” to accommodate them.

Moutchou held bilateral meetings with each political grouping, including the FLNKS, the pro-independence PALIKA and UPM, and the pro-France Les Loyalistes, Rassemblement-LR, Calédonie Ensemble and Wallisian-based Eveil Océanien. The FLNKS declined to join a final roundtable saying it was not mandated to negotiate.

Moutchou noted however that in its final communiqué, the FLNKS had expressed the wish to pursue dialogue. “But they are rejecting the Bougival agreement, they’re rejecting it in block. They just don’t want to talk on this basis. So the door should stay open,” she declared.

Despite its present posturing, FLNKS was complicit last year in moves to smother the youth uprising. Despite having “socialism” in its title, the FLNKS is not socialist but a nationalist organisation seeking further privileges for the indigenous bourgeois elite. It was instrumental in establishing the Nouméa Accord which ended civil war conditions of the 1980s in return for political and business influence.

Moutchou acknowledged the “fragmented” political landscape. “The (French) government is in the process of analysing the written opinions of each political party.… It is continuing consultations with all stakeholders to determine the next steps,” she said. On December 8 New Caledonia’s parliament, the Congress, in a sharply divided vote endorsed the principle of a proposed de facto referendum, but with a narrow majority of 19 in favour, 19 abstentions and 14 against, including the FLNKS caucus.

The pro-France factions are irate about any concessions on the document. Pro-France MP for New Caledonia Nicolas Metzdorf declared that Paris is “scared of fresh violence in New Caledonia because of a possible boycott from FLNKS.” He declared that if the new meeting convened by Macron “wants to take [it] further than Bougival, [the answer] will be no.”

France’s Constitutional Council has meanwhile validated the postponement of New Caledonia’s local elections. The poll, which was originally planned to take place by November, has been pushed back to June 2026. Due to the ongoing crisis, the repeated delays to the election has reached twenty-five months.

Moutchou left Nouméa with few promises regarding further commitments from Paris to address the territory’s dire financial situation. There has been an estimated drop of GDP by 13.5 percent, the destruction of hundreds of businesses and loss of tens of thousands of jobs.

The French government last year unlocked a special loan of €1 billion. New Caledonia’s indebtedness has soared to 360 percent with debts due to be refunded as early as 2026, at a high interest rate of 4.54 percent. There are growing calls for the loans to be converted into a non-refundable grant.

Over 7,000 people have recently fled the country, including many skilled workers and medical staff. Among the population of 264,596, 12,000 remain without jobs and a scheme to assist the unemployed, extended from 2024, ends this month. There are pleas to extend it again at least until June 2026. The local retirement scheme is threatening to collapse.

The FLNKS has meanwhile become embroiled in a widening split with two “moderate” constituent parties quitting the wider pro-independence front. The UPM (Progressist Union in Melanesia) last month formalised its departure at a party congress, five days after PALIKA (Kanak Liberation Party) also finalised its split from FLNKS at its 50th Congress.

Both groups, which were founding members of FLNKS in 1984, invoked similar reasons for the move. UPM leader Victor Tutugoro declared his party found it increasingly “difficult to exist today within the (FLNKS) pro-independence movement, part of which has now widely radicalised through outrage and threats.” He said UPM and PALIKA did not recognise the FLNKS’s increasingly “violent operating mode.”

Since August 2024, UPM had not taken part in the FLNKS because it did not accept its “forceful ways” under the dominant Union Calédonienne party, the recruitment of new “nationalist” factions and the appointment of CCAT (Field Action Coordinating Cell) leader Christian Téin as President. Téin was arrested in June 2024 on charges over the riots and imprisoned in mainland France until released home on bail last month.

The UPM and Palika are now forming a new National Union for Independence (Union Nationale pour l’Indépendance, UNI) grouping to develop a political party in preparation for the municipal and provincial elections. Both groups have, with reservations, reaffirmed their support for the Bougival agreement.

Behind Paris’ drive to impose a “negotiated settlement,” what Macron has referred to as “Republican order”—i.e. militarisation and state repression— will be strictly enforced. Moutchou declared that the security forces, numbering over 2,500 personnel, will stay as long as needed. She told Radio Rythme Bleu: “To be very clear, it will be zero tolerance. I’m very attached to the authority of the State. There are rules and they must be respected. You can demonstrate, you can say you don’t agree. But you don’t cross the red line.”